Will a Drought Affect the Price of Ethanol?
More leading economists have come out against increased ethanol production. Supporters of ethanol say such talk ignores the complex variables that determine food prices, of which cost of the actual grain (corn is a grain) is but a small portion. The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) contends that there is plenty of food to feed the world. Jean Ziegler, the U.N. Corn happens to be the crop of choice in the United States when it comes to making ethanol, but it’s not the only source that fuel producers can use.
One of the biggest concerns is what would happen if anything disrupted the supply of corn, a major feedstock for ethanol. Ethanol production probably would not meet federal requirements if a major drought took place. Even as the government tries to encourage ethanol, farmers and corporations push back by lobbying Congress for special considerations. Drought — an unusually prolonged, extreme lack of rain — poses one obvious threat. Corn prices are “inextricably linked” to the U.S. In fact, a seminal study on the matter suggests a strong correlation between drought, low corn yields and higher ethanol prices. A severe drought would boost corn prices so high that ethanol producers would have to idle their fuel production facilities.
Policy makers say this will reduce the United States’ dependency on foreign sources of oil. A severe drought, the paper said, would increase corn prices by 50 percent if fuel producers still had to meet the EISA biofuel mandate. Babcock’s testimony, however, downplayed a contingency mentioned in the research paper he co-wrote earlier in the year. Iowa State University researcher Bruce Babcock further told the U.S. Throughout most of recorded history, humankind has regarded droughts and other weather catastrophes as unavoidable “acts of God.” But some scientists say we could be inviting severe and lengthy droughts upon ourselves. That’s because food manufacturers would be competing even more feverishly with fuel producers to buy corn.
This article examines the crucial role that “King Corn” plays as the world weighs its need to feed itself against its need to fuel the demand to replace oil. Since so much money and so many jobs depend on this still-expanding industry, many people have studied the conditions that could benefit or harm the ethanol business. Ethanol production is already a multi-billion dollar industry with an economic ecosystem that includes farming, manufacturing, transportation and other sectors.
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